For context, before reading on, please read: A Warning, an Opportunity, and a Leap of Faith.
As a follow on from my previous post, I have since repurchased Bitcoin. My portfolio now holds 90% BTC and 10% ETH (Ethereum). The uncertainty around scalability has subsided somewhat. The price dropped to a floor of $910 and has now stabilized at around $1030.
I anticipated a further drop to around $800 (perhaps I was overly influenced by the FUD – fear, uncertainty, doubt – prevalent in crypto circles). I had planned to re-purchase more Bitcoins at the lower price, with my relatively more valuable alt-coins (alternative cryptocurrencies). This never materialized and I ultimately re-purchased my BTC at essentially the same price where I sold them.
The market showed itself to have a good understanding of the scalability ‘crisis’ and far from reacting in a panic reacted in a very composed fashion. Although this remains dependent on Bitcoin avoiding any contentious hard fork.
Today, judging from developments over the last week, a hard fork is looking less and less likely with each passing day (Bitcoin sage Andreas Antonopoulos puts this at a 10% likelihood). This means price is likely to stay between $1000-$1100. Segregated Witness (SegWit) adoption is the main price influencer at the moment, and is likely to send the price rising quickly towards $2000. SegWit will also make it unlikely, that the price of Bitcoin will ever return to the $1000 mark. We may look back in a few months, years or decades and reminisce at how close we were to getting in at $1000.
I felt this update was necessary as the developments in the past week lead me to regret ever parting with my Bitcoin. In many ways, it has re-emphsized its value to me; in posts to follow I will explain exactly why I see it so.